99 Percent of Executives Expect AI Layoffs by 2028 a New Survey Finds

Mercer's Global Talent Trends 2026 report, covered by Inc., found that 99 percent of surveyed executives expect AI and automation to drive at least some headcount reduction inside the next two years. The figure sounds like a countdown to mass unemployment, but the underlying data tells a more layered story about restructuring, reskilling, and a workforce that feels increasingly anxious. At Metaintro, we read past the scary headline so you can see what the survey actually measured and what it means for your job, your skills, and your next move. The short version is that change is coming fast, yet the path for most workers looks more like redeployment than a pink slip, and that difference should shape how you plan the next two years.

So what did the Mercer survey actually find?

The report drew on responses from nearly 12,000 people across 16 geographies and 16 industries, including C-suite leaders, HR executives, employees, and investors. The widely quoted 99 percent figure refers specifically to senior executives who expect AI and automation to lead to at least some headcount reduction within two years. That phrasing matters more than the number. "Some headcount reduction" is not the same as "we plan to fire most of our staff," and the rest of the report makes clear that leaders are planning a mix of cuts, redeployment, and reskilling rather than a single wave of layoffs. Mercer also found that 98 percent of executives are planning major organizational design changes over the next two years, which means the structure of work itself is being rebuilt, not just the size of the payroll. When nearly every leader in a 12,000-person sample agrees on a direction, it is worth understanding what they are actually agreeing to before you panic. It is also worth noting who answered. Mercer surveyed not just executives but the HR leaders who run reskilling programs, the employees living through the change, and the investors funding it, which makes the report a rare 360-degree view rather than a single boardroom opinion. The gap between what executives plan and what employees feel, which we will get to, is one of the most useful signals in the whole dataset.

Does 99 percent really mean almost everyone will lose their job?

No, and this is where the headline and the data part ways. Expecting "some" reduction is a near-universal forecast precisely because it is a low bar. If a company eliminates even one role through automation, that executive can honestly answer yes to the survey. The more revealing number is that 65 percent of leaders expect to redeploy or reskill between 11 and 30 percent of their workforce because of AI. Redeployment means moving people into new roles rather than out the door. That distinction is the difference between a worker who gets retrained for an AI-adjacent job and one who is simply cut. The survey describes a reshuffling of where human effort goes, with automation absorbing repetitive tasks while people are pushed toward work that machines cannot yet do well. For a clearer view of why this looks more like a reshuffle than a collapse, our breakdown of the AI workforce skills mismatch walks through the same gap between fear and reality. The takeaway is that a high expectation of "some" cuts and a high expectation of "lots" of reskilling can both be true at once, and they are.

Why are executives so confident about AI when the returns are still uncertain?

This is the strangest part of the data. Even as 99 percent forecast headcount reductions, only 32 percent of executives believe their organizations can optimally combine human and machine capabilities. In other words, almost everyone expects AI to change staffing, but only about a third feel ready to actually pull it off well. Coverage of the report noted that returns remain shaky, with only about a quarter of CEOs saying AI deployment has clearly met or exceeded expectations and a meaningful share reporting no clear revenue impact at all. That gap between conviction and capability is a warning sign. When leaders cut roles based on a technology they have not yet mastered, the result can be understaffed teams, broken handoffs, and the kind of regret we documented when CEOs walked back mass layoffs. Confidence in the trend does not guarantee competence in the execution, and that is genuinely good news for workers who can position themselves as the people who make the human-AI mix actually work. The 68 percent of companies that do not yet feel ready will need exactly those people, and they will need them soon.

Who is most at risk according to the survey?

The data points squarely at entry-level and junior roles. Reporting on the Mercer findings noted that the share of companies actively reducing junior positions jumped sharply year over year, with automation hitting the routine, learnable tasks that have traditionally been handed to new hires. This is the same pressure we traced when the executive assistant role started vanishing under AI scheduling and admin tools. The risk is not evenly distributed. Roles built around repetitive, well-defined tasks are the easiest to automate, while roles that require judgment, relationship management, and cross-functional problem solving are far harder to replace. If your job is mostly process execution, the survey is a signal to start adding judgment-heavy work to your plate now. The danger is not only being cut but being quietly deskilled, a slower threat we examined in our piece on career security and deskilling. There is also a hard truth for early-career workers here. When companies automate the entry-level tasks that used to be a training ground, they shrink the on-ramp into a profession, which makes it harder to build the very judgment that keeps a career safe. Breaking that loop means seeking out stretch work and mentorship aggressively rather than waiting to be assigned it.

What is the survey telling us about how workers actually feel?

The morale data is the most alarming part of the report, and it has nothing to do with the 99 percent figure. Mercer found that the share of employees who say they are thriving at work fell from 66 percent in 2024 to just 44 percent in 2026, a steep drop in only two years. At the same time, employee concern about losing a job to AI climbed from 28 percent in 2024 to 40 percent in 2026. People are reading the same headlines you are, and the uncertainty is taking a toll. This emotional cost rarely shows up in layoff trackers, but it shapes how teams perform, whether people speak up, and how long workers stay. We saw a version of this hidden tax when we looked at the hidden cost of the AI workday, where productivity gains came with a quiet drain on focus and trust. The drop in thriving also creates a strange opening. In a workforce where many people are anxious and disengaged, the employee who stays calm, keeps learning, and visibly drives results stands out far more than they would in a confident, stable market. Morale slumps are hard on everyone, but they reward the people who refuse to freeze.

Is this just a tech-industry story or does it reach everyone?

It reaches far beyond tech, even though tech grabs the headlines. Tech layoffs have been heavy this year, and a large share of those cuts have been linked to AI and restructuring, which is why stories about Meta's eight thousand layoffs, Intuit's three thousand job cuts, and Cloudflare's twenty percent reduction dominate the feed. But the Mercer sample spans 16 industries, which means finance, healthcare, retail, and professional services leaders are forecasting the same headcount pressure. Pat Tomlinson, Mercer's President and CEO, framed the shift bluntly, warning that organizations clinging to outdated work models risk falling behind because they are merely substituting old approaches with technology rather than reinventing how work is actually done. That framing matters because it means the change is structural and broad, not a passing tech-sector cycle. The companies that win will deconstruct jobs into tasks, hand the routine ones to machines, and rebuild human roles around what is left, and that reinvention will touch industries that have never thought of themselves as tech-driven. Policy whiplash adds to the uncertainty, as we saw when the administration abruptly canceled an AI executive order that workers had been counting on for guardrails.

How can you AI-proof your role before 2028?

Start by treating the two-year window as a planning horizon rather than a doomsday clock. The workers who come out ahead are the ones who become the bridge between human judgment and machine output, which is exactly the capability only 32 percent of companies say they have today. First, audit your own job and separate the repetitive tasks that AI can absorb from the judgment-heavy work only you can do, then deliberately shift your time toward the latter so that more of your value sits in the hard-to-automate column. Second, build demonstrable AI fluency so you are the person who improves a workflow rather than the one replaced by it, and learn how to show that fluency on your resume in concrete, results-driven terms instead of vague buzzwords. Third, invest in the durable skills that outlast any single job title, the communication, problem-framing, and cross-team coordination we covered in our guide to the five skills that beat a job title. Fourth, position yourself as a redeployment candidate rather than a layoff target by raising your hand for AI-adjacent projects before they are assigned, because the 65 percent of leaders planning to reskill staff will reach for people who already show initiative. Finally, watch the leadership signals in your own organization, because the same pressure that has CIOs reporting record strain in 2026 is the pressure that decides which roles get reinvented and which get removed. The survey is loud, but the response is in your hands.

What should you do if the headline still makes you nervous?

Anxiety is a reasonable reaction to a 99 percent statistic, so channel it into preparation rather than paralysis. Build a financial cushion if you can, keep your professional network warm before you need it, and quietly document the wins that prove your judgment is hard to replace. Update your resume and your stored accomplishments now, while you have the calm to do it well, instead of scrambling during a sudden reorganization. Treat any internal reskilling program as a gift rather than a chore, because employers who invest in retraining are telling you exactly where they want humans to stay. The Mercer report is a forecast of intent, not a verdict on your specific role, and the two years between now and 2028 are enough time to move yourself from the automatable column into the indispensable one if you start today. Remember that the same survey showing 99 percent expecting cuts also shows 65 percent planning to reskill a meaningful slice of their workforce, which means there is a deliberate, funded effort inside many companies to keep people employed in new forms. Your job is to make sure you are visible to that effort, prepared for it, and ready to say yes when the new role appears.

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• The Hidden Cost of the AI Workday
• Meta's 8,000 Layoffs in May 2026
• Intuit's 3,000 Job Cuts and the Tech Layoff Playbook
• Cloudflare's 20 Percent Layoffs in 2026
• Trump Cancels AI Executive Order
• 5 Skills That Beat a Job Title in 2026
• How to Show AI Fluency on Your Resume
• CIOs Face Record Pressure in 2026

People Also Asked

Q: Did 99 percent of executives really say they will lay people off?

A: Not exactly. In Mercer's Global Talent Trends 2026 survey, 99 percent of executives said they expect AI and automation to lead to at least some headcount reduction within two years. That is a forecast of "some" reduction, not a plan for mass layoffs, and 65 percent of leaders also expect to redeploy or reskill 11 to 30 percent of their workforce instead of simply cutting it.

Q: Which jobs are most at risk from AI according to the survey?

A: Entry-level and junior roles face the most pressure, because they tend to involve the routine, learnable tasks that automation handles first. Reporting on the Mercer findings showed the share of companies actively reducing junior positions rose sharply year over year. Roles built on judgment, relationship management, and cross-functional problem solving are far harder to automate.

Q: How can I protect my career from AI layoffs before 2028?

A: Shift your time toward judgment-heavy work that machines cannot do, build demonstrable AI fluency so you improve workflows rather than get replaced by them, and invest in durable skills like communication and problem-framing. Volunteer for AI-adjacent projects so you become a redeployment candidate, since most companies plan to reskill a meaningful share of staff.

Future-proof your career before the next wave of AI restructuring arrives. Metaintro reads the job market signals for you and surfaces the roles where your skills still command a premium, then you apply directly on the employer's own page. Create your free Metaintro account and let our AI keep you a step ahead of every layoff, hire, and shift in the market so you always know where to go next.